February 6, 2009

Which way the economy goes? Economics, General Investing and Stocks

Tough times call for desperate measures. Here in sunny (ok, it’s been raining this week and the a/c in my car chose to die on me so I’ve been driving in a stuffy car) Singapore, the finance budget’s been announced earlier than usual and been debated to death. However, being a small open economy, how the world goes, we go.

Turning to recent news, the markets have been excited about China-led recovery. (read about it here from Michael Pettis, a Professor of Peking University,GuangHua School of Management) However, as pointed out in the same article there is a need for cautious optimism as:

First, this credit expansion is not all that it may seem. Aside from the fact that a lot of this new credit has consisted of an increase in bill discounting, in order to understand what is really happening to total credit in the Chinese economy we need much better data. There are persistent rumors that part of the increase in bank lending consisted of putting back on balance sheet loans that were taken off balance sheets in 2007 and 2008 when the PBoC was trying to constrain bank lending. It isn’t really new credit. We also don’t have a very good feel for what is happening in the informal banking sector, and in the past there was evidence that contraction and expansion in the informal banks counteracted what occurred in the formal banking sector.


there is clearly an increase in lending games aimed at making policymakers happy by showing fat loan books…

Second, exploding credit may provide a fillip to growth in the short term, but if it leads to a future increase in bad loans, it will have exactly the opposite effect in the near future.

Third, the biggest problem has to do with how much credit expansion will make a difference. Basically Chinese corporate profitability in China is dropping sharply, and nearly everyone expects the trend to continue over the rest of 2009. If nearly two-thirds of investment in China was funded by retained earnings, a sharp drop in profitability should result in an equally sharp drop in investment funded by retained earnings. I don’t know the magnitude, but I would guess that a very large increase in real bank lending aimed at real investment, far more than has been reported, would be needed just to make up for the decline in investment out of retained earnings. This, by the way, is an argument that has also been made by my friend Sam Baker at TNR.

Yves Smith over at Naked Capitalism has something on the unemployment situation in China. It doesn’t look good.


To the sighting du jour: a Chinese official, citing Agricultural Ministry data, pegged the number of rural migrants to coastal factories who are returning home at 20 million. This figure is far higher than any to date (readers may have other sources that are more in line with this tally, but the biggest estimate I have seen so far is 10 million, although Wen fessed up to 12 million yesterday, so the new data is a stunner). And that is only the level of reverse migration. The figure does not include those who remained in cities and are still looking for work.

There was also a report (no link) on how some Chinese workers came back from their lunar new year celebrations only to find that the Italian furniture factory they worked in had closed down and their boss had run off, leaving them jobless.

Oh, and if that’s not the worst thing that can happen, Roubini, who has gained prominence because of his uncanny predictions on the unfolding of the whole crisis, has something on Chinese data massaging. And if the man-made troubles weren’t enough, China’s facing a terrible drought.

I don’t even want to get to how bad things seem to be going in the US , Europe or Japan. Naked Capitalism, RGE, and Credit Writedowns has plenty on that.

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